Capitals fatal flaw that will doom them in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs

It was a race to the finish that seemed like nobody wanted to claim, as the Washington Capitals, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins were all vying for the final Wild Card berth in the Eastern Conference. It was as if all four teams were passing around a hand grenade that could explode at any second, as none of them could step up and fully secure the spot with more than a few games of consistent play at a time.

The Capitals dramatically secured their playoff berth, benefiting from a wild and somewhat controversial finish. Although Detroit staged two remarkable comebacks against the Montreal Canadiens, Washington sealed their postseason spot by scoring into the empty net late in regulation of their game against the Flyers, rendering Detroit’s victory inconsequential.

The Capitals’ prize is a Round 1 clash with the New York Rangers, who clinched the President’s Trophy as the NHL’s top regular-season team. This encounter will mark their seventh postseason showdown since 1994, with the Rangers emerging victorious in four of those matchups.

Franchise legend Alexander Ovechkin displayed signs of aging earlier in the season, managing just eight goals in the first 43 games, which cast doubt on his ability to realistically catch and pass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record of 892. However, the Russian veteran picked up steam in the second half of the season, scoring 23 goals in his final 36 games to reach a total of 31, an NHL record 18th season that a player has reached the 30-goal plateau.

But unfortunately for the Capitals, they’re nowhere near as strong as they were in years past, giving a clear advantage in the upcoming series for the Rangers.

The Capitals traded valuable depth at the NHL Trade Deadline

Simply put, the Capitals lack the firepower needed to compete with the Rangers, who have elite talent across the board. They made significant changes by parting ways with popular forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, who played a key role in their 2018 Stanley Cup victory and trading forward Anthony Mantha to the Vegas Golden Knights; both players were dealt at the NHL Trade Deadline in what many saw as a sign that they were punting on the season.

As a result, the Capitals lack the depth in their lineup that they’ve had in previous seasons, which the Rangers should be able to exploit with their bevy of talent led by the likes of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox and Alexis Lafreniere.

Washington’s fatal flaw is something the Rangers can easily exploit

Perhaps the most eye-opening stat that works against the Capitals is the fact that they are entering the playoffs with an astounding goal differential of -37, the worst by any postseason team since the early 1990s. Only five teams out of the 25 that have qualified for the playoffs with a negative goal differential since the implementation of the salary cap have been able to advance to Round 2.

By all indications, they never should have had any realistic chance of qualifying, yet somehow were able to make it work thanks in large part to the play of goaltender Charlie Lindgren.

The former castoff from the Montreal Canadiens authored an unbelievable story down the stretch, going 16-9-3 with four shutouts, a 2.65 goals against average, and .910 save percentage in the 28 starts he made after February 10. But he’s played in exactly zero postseason games at the NHL level.

The Rangers are the clear betting favorites

The Capitals’ best chance against the Rangers lies in Lindgren’s continued strong play and their ability to limit the offensive impact of Panarin. If they can achieve both, they might have a shot at winning a game or two in the series and making life uncomfortable for the Rangers. However, it’s still a tall order given the Rangers’ overall talent and depth.

Ovechkin is well aware of the Capitals’ underdog status, something that he touched on while meeting with media members on Thursday, via Chris Cerullo of Russian Machine Never Breaks.

“Yeah, we all understand how we have to play, what kind of team New York is going to be,” Ovechkin said. “We’re just going to play it game by game and see what happens.”

The Capitals will begin their series against the Rangers tomorrow afternoon at 3:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden in the heart of Manhattan. Can they pull off a monumental upset, or will their postseason run be short-lived as statistical indicators suggest?