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Mike Clay's 49ers projections for the 2024 season: Defense

Originally posted on 49ers Webzone | By David Bonilla | Last updated 5/18/24

ESPN's Mike Clay has unveiled his projections for the 2024 season, forecasting the San Francisco 49ers to secure 12.4 wins in his analytics model. These predictions delve into individual player performances, offering insights into what we might expect from the team's defense in the upcoming season. Let's look into the defensive projections and highlight some of the top performers from this unit.

Click here to view the offensive projections.

Some key factors to keep in mind:

The numbers shown are projections for the 2024 NFL regular season (Weeks 1-18).
Most players max out at 15 projected games played due to injury rates, as most players won't play 17 games.
Due to the nature of analytics modeling, some numbers that one might expect to be whole numbers are not.

Defensive end Nick Bosa finished his 2023 campaign with 10.5 sacks and is projected to hit the 10-sack mark again in 2024 while recording 56 tackles in 833 snaps. Newly acquired pass rusher Leonard Floyd is expected to rank second with 7.5 sacks, marking his lowest total since 2019. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is projected to come in third with six sacks.

Clay forecasts linebacker Fred Warner to achieve an impressive career-high and team-leading 144 tackles while registering 1.5 sacks. Regarding interceptions, cornerback Charvarius Ward is projected to lead the 49ers with 3.1 in this analytics model.

Below are Clay's full projections for the 49ers defense.

Pos	Player	Snap	Tkl	Sack	INT
DI	Javon Hargrave	683	53	6.0	0.0
DI	Maliek Collins	641	39	4.1	0.0
DI	Jordan Elliott	427	24	1.9	0.0
DI	Kevin Givens	320	21	1.2	0.0
DI	T.Y. McGill	43	3	0.2	0.0
ED	Nick Bosa	833	56	10.0	0.0
ED	Leonard Floyd	587	38	7.5	0.0
ED	Drake Jackson	320	19	3.3	0.0
ED	Yetur Gross-Matos	267	20	1.7	0.1
ED	Robert Beal Jr.	160	11	1.4	0.0
LB	Fred Warner	1015	144	1.5	1.7
LB	De'Vondre Campbell	550	77	0.6	0.5
LB	Dre Greenlaw	452	65	0.7	0.5
LB	Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	195	25	0.3	0.2
LB	Dee Winters	85	11	0.2	0.1
CB	Charvarius Ward	1004	76	0.2	3.1
CB	Deommodore Lenoir	961	83	0.5	1.4
CB	Ambry Thomas	587	50	0.0	1.2
CB	Renardo Green	288	22	0.1	0.5
CB	Rock Ya-Sin	75	5	0.0	0.1
S	Talanoa Hufanga	961	89	0.8	1.8
S	Ji'Ayir Brown	961	94	0.4	2.6
S	George Odum	224	21	0.1	0.4
S	Tayler Hawkins	75	7	0.1	0.2
S	Malik Mustapha	32	3	0.0	0.1